The 2015 hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean likely will see fewer storms than usual, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.
NOAA predicts the following:
“For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.”
Preseason hurricane forecasts are of limited value — as the science is inexact and, as Ocean City knows well from 2012’s Superstorm Sandy, it takes only one storm to produce devastating flood damage.
“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook,” NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan said. “As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities.”
But the forecast notes that conditions will not be ideal for the frequent development of strong storms.
“The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” NOAA forecaster Gerry Bell said. “El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season. We also expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic to be close to normal, whereas warmer waters would have supported storm development.”
The Atlantic already has seen its first named storm, Ana, but the early arrival of that storm is not an indication of a busy season, according to NOAA. The conditions that created Ana on Mother’s Day Weekend were different than those that will create summer and fall tropical storms.
To help those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA offers hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service announcements at www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
