How To Bet on the Next Pope: Top Sites, Odds, and Candidates

Maybe you’ve heard — the unfortunate passing of Pope Francis has set the stage for the next conclave, the highly secretive meeting inside the Vatican where senior cardinals decide the next pope. While the Church’s most senior members head to Rome, many observers are actually betting on the next pope.

Already, nearly $10 million has been traded on the outcome across popular prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.

Looking to get in on the action? Here’s what you need to know to bet on the next pope.

Is betting on the Pope legal?

Betting on papal elections is one of the oldest known forms of election betting. At one point, it actually became an excommunicable offense for Catholics. But don’t sweat, that hasn’t been the case since 1918!

And now, thanks to the rise of event-based prediction markets, betting on the pope is perfectly legal in the U.S. That’s right, U.S. citizens can bet on the next pope in all 50 states, regardless of their state gambling laws.

Where to bet on the Pope?

Pope betting odds are available on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, where users trade ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ contracts and bet real money on who the next pope will be.

Kalshi’s exchange functions similar to the stock market, where each candidate has a price that fluctuates in real time based on the supply and demand of the market, which is largely influenced by the news (more on how this works below).

Meanwhile, international users can bet on the pope on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market form.

And for those who want to make predictions but aren’t interested in risking real money, there’s Manifold: a play-money prediction market that lets users predict a variety of questions, and/or pose their own, related to the current conclave and Pope Francis’ successor.

In any case, the conclave will begin between May 6 and May 11, so you’ve got plenty of time to research and begin trading.

Current Pope Betting Odds

Let’s look closer at the top candidates so that we know who we are betting on and against.

Pietro Parolin (27%) - Italy’s own Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin is the Church's seasoned statesman, conducting foreign affairs and diplomacy across the globe. Though he’s been the right-hand man to Pope Francis since 2013, he is a traditionalist at heart but fairly moderate overall.

Luis Antonio Tagle (24%) - From the Philippines, Tagle is often dubbed the “Asian Francis” for his liberal, compassionate theological approach. However, the pendulum is known to swing back and forth between conservative and liberal popes, which could make it tough for Tagle to earn the required two-thirds vote from the College of Cardinals.

Matteo Zupp (12%) - Another liberal aligned with Pope Francis, the Archbishop of Bologna, Zuppi is renowned for his grassroots activism and peacemaking efforts, notably in Mozambique, where he was made honorary citizen after helping end the country’s civil war in 1992.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%) - The candidate with by far the coolest name of the bunch, Pizzballa served as Custos of the Holy Land, overseeing the pastoral care of Hebrew-speaking members of the Church.

Peter Turkson (8%) - Hailing from Ghana, Turkson is a favorite to become the first black pope. Turkson, like most of the church’s leadership from Africa, leans conservative on social issues but he has been outspoken on global challenges such as poverty and climate change.

Peter Erdo (5%) -  Arguably the most conservative of the candidates, is the former president of the Council of European Bishops. His experience coupled with his staunch conservatism serves as a bridge between European and African leadership, which may give him a leg up on the competition when it’s time to vote.

Robert Sarah (5%) - From Guinea, Sarah is unsurprisingly conservative on social issues, opposing the blessing of same sex marriages and denouncing Islamic fundamentalism.

Fridolin Ambongo (4%) - An archbishop out of the Congo, Ambongo was one of nine members of the Council of Cardinals advising Francis. With commitment to the Church’s traditional teachings, he led opposition to Francis’ 2023 ruling that churches should bless same-sex marriages.

Jean-Marc Aveline (2%) -  Born in Algeria and serving as Archbishop of Marseille, Aveline represents the thoughtful, inclusive vision for the Church that Francis inspired.

Mario Grech (2%) -  Having held largely conservative views before Francis took the throne, Grech’s theology has evolved over the years. He has since called for the Church to be more accepting of LGBTQ+ members and supported women as deacons.

Now sign up on Kalshi, make your pope bets, sit back and wait for a white puff of smoke.