Morgan Wallen performs in concert.
Will Morgan Wallen have a No. 1 hit song this year? Here's how to put real money on it.
Country music superstar Morgan Wallen is gearing up for the release of his fourth studio album, I’m the Problem, on May 16. The album is expected to produce blockbuster numbers on streaming and sales charts, just as his last two albums did.
Fans and music industry followers will be eyeing the charts following Wallen’s new release and now they can even legally bet on how I’m the Problem will perform.
Sign up to Kalshi to trade on music artists like Morgan Wallen.
Prediction market Kalshi is offering several markets in which users can trade shares related to I’m the Problem’s chart and streaming performance and win real money if their predictions are correct.
Will Morgan Wallen’s latest be another smash hit or a rare dud?
At prediction markets like Kalshi, traders can explore a wide range of markets and buy contracts related to the outcomes of various events. When you find a market you’re interested in, you’ll see the odds on how likely or unlikely that event will occur, which is based on the trades of other users and is reflected in the pricing.
You can choose either “Yes” or “No” and then wait for the market to resolve, with the opportunity to buy or sell shares all the way up until the resolution.
As with betting on a sporting event’s outcome at a sportsbook — or at Kalshi — the best way to make an educated selection is to research the history and latest news related to the market outcome. In the case of Wallen’s I’m the Problem performance, that means looking at how the singer’s previous albums did, how much momentum his career currently has and what kind of competition he’ll face on the charts.
Wallen’s mix of country, pop and R&B has made him a mega-superstar with major crossover appeal. His mainstream breakthrough came with 2021’s Dangerous: The Double Album, which spent 10 weeks atop the Billboard 200 album chart upon its release. Wallen’s 2023 followup, One Thing at a Time, was even bigger, spending 19 non-consecutive weeks at No. 1.
Only a select few superstars have the kind of momentum Wallen has leading up to I’m the Problem’s release. Singles from I’m the Problem issued in the months leading up to its release have performed very well and sell-outs are expected for his summer stadium tour. Wallen’s previous two albums are still in the Top 10 on the Billboard 200 album chart.
There are more than 40 markets at Kalshi related to the streaming and sales performance of Wallen's new album. The majority of those are individual markets predicting how many Spotify streams all 37 tracks on I’m on Problem will have notched by June 20. Users can trade “Yes” or “No” contracts on whether or not each track will have more than a certain number of streams (for example, “above 20 million”).
Other I’m the Problem markets at Kalshi include “Will Morgan Wallen have a No. 1 hit this year,” which lets users bet on whether any Wallen track will top the Billboard Hot 100 song chart by Dec. 27.
This seems fairly likely given Wallen’s consistent chart domination, but that makes a “Yes” contract fairly low-value, with Kalshi odds of it happening at 88% as of May 15. That means if you bought $100 worth of “Yes” shares, you’d only net $11 if the prediction proves true. See the Kalshi chart above for updated odds and to trade on this market.
Similarly, Kalshi’s “Morgan Wallen has a #1 album this year” market has the odds of that happening at 98%, meaning most traders believe I’m the Problem will top the Billboard 200 before the end of the year. But this could be a good market to keep an eye on if the album is somehow held out of the top spot by Bad Bunny, whose latest currently sits at No. 1 and could retain momentum in light of the singer’s Saturday Night Live appearance on May 17.
Morgan Wallen markets at Kalshi with more value include “Most streamed song on I'm The Problem by June 20th?” The favorites include “Lies Lies Lies” and “Love Somebody,” previously released singles that have already racked up millions of Spotify streams and recently had, respectively, 45% and 35% odds at Kalshi of being the top-streamed tracks. A decent longshot could be “Superman,” a single released on May 9 that will likely pick up streams after the album drops. You could buy “Yes” contracts on “Superman” for just 1 cent as of May 15.
Other interesting Wallen markets at Kalshi include “Morgan Wallen holds top ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100?,” which resolves to “Yes” if Wallen has all of the Top 10 songs on the chart for the week of May 31. Taylor Swift is the only artist to accomplish this feat and Kalshi traders had the odds that Wallen follows suit at just 15%. This is the most popular Wallen market at Kalshi, attracting nearly $200,000 in trading volume as of May 15.
Whether you’re a Morgan Wallen fan or just have a good sense of how sales and streams work in the music biz, you now have a chance to profit on your predictions.
Sign up at Kalshi today for a chance to win real money by predicting I’m the Problem’s chart future.
