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When will reconciliation bill become law? Traders predict more delays

Prediction market traders are speculating on when the GOP “big, beautiful bill” will pass.

Traders are predicting a standoff on the GOP tax bill to last through the summer.

Prediction market traders are speculating on when the GOP “big, beautiful bill” will pass.

  • Prediction Markets

Speaker Mike Johnson works hard to bridge the vast differences in his party over the “one big, beautiful bill.” Despite his push to pass a sweeping budget reconciliation bill by Memorial Day, Capitol Hill remains locked in a familiar standoff. At the heart of it is Medicaid.


Trade on when the Reconciliation Bill will pass at Kalshi today


A dozen centrist Republicans, many representing swing districts with large Medicaid populations, are publicly rebelling against the party’s most aggressive cost-cutting demands. That includes proposed per-capita caps and shifting more of the program’s cost burden to states. The GOP’s right flank, meanwhile, is threatening to kill the bill altogether unless at least $2 trillion in spending cuts are found, much of it expected to come from health programs like Medicaid.


This conflict, playing out in real time, is now being tracked in an unlikely place: a federally regulated prediction market, showing real market sentiments (or public expectation).


On Kalshi, a platform where users can legally trade contracts on real-world events, the question “When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?” has become a high-volume market, yielding $418k interest. As of this week, traders are assigning just a 16% chance that the bill will pass before June 1. The odds jump to 78% by September, and 86% by year’s end, reflecting growing skepticism that Speaker Mike Johnson can bridge the policy divide on his original Memorial Day timeline.


Prediction markets gauge public sentiment and expectations

Kalshi is part of a new wave of prediction markets approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Users can buy “Yes” or “No” shares in outcomes that resolve to $1 if correct, $0 if not. 


For instance, if someone buys a “Yes” share on the reconciliation bill passing by June and it does, they receive $1. If it doesn’t, they lose their stake. The current market price reflects collective probability. In this case, 16¢ for “Yes” means traders think there’s a 16% chance it happens.


These “bets” are classified as trading on event contracts, which functionally intend to serve a hedging function for businesses exposed to political risk. Increasingly, nowadays it is used as a reflection of public expectations on unpredictable policy outcomes.

Case for delays on the “Big, Beautiful Bill” 

The legislation in question is enormous in scope and high in stakes. Drafted in parallel by House and Senate Republicans, the bill is expected to raise the debt ceiling, extend the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts, and introduce hundreds of billions in new spending for border security and the military.


At the same time, GOP leaders have pledged that any new tax relief must be offset by spending cuts. That’s where things get complicated. House moderates have warned they’ll oppose cuts to Medicaid. Blue-state Republicans are demanding higher state and local tax (SALT) deductions. And fiscal hawks in the House Freedom Caucus are drawing red lines on deficit increases.


House Speaker Mike Johnson has tried to straddle both camps. “If we can’t find a requisite number of savings, that means there’s less that we might be able to achieve in the overall package,” he said, describing what he calls a “ratchet system” of conditional offsets.

when will the reconciliation bill pass the House?

But as internal GOP tensions boil over, some are quietly floating the idea that the final vote could slip into summer, or beyond


Meanwhile, top White House and congressional officials announced on Monday a new deadline for passing President Trump's big tax promises — July 4.


Beyond the inside-baseball of reconciliation rules and budget scoring, the bill affects real policy: tax cuts, Medicaid coverage, and whether the federal debt ceiling gets raised on time. The most serious deadline for passing the package is the debt ceiling X date, which people expect to hit in August or September.


With the availability of prediction markets, you can now turn your political predictions into real cash winnings if your hunch turns out to be right. 


Sign up to Kalshi to trade today!

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