NJ Transit workers can hedge on the possibility of a strike taking place before June 1.
Kalshi market shows fluctuating odds for a NJ Transit strike to take place before the end of May.
Commuters in New Jersey are bracing for a potential rail strike that would significantly reduce train service in the Garden State.
The question of not if but when a strike may occur is currently not only on the minds of workers and commuters. It’s also being considered at prediction markets like Kalshi, where users can bet on whether or not NJ train engineers will go on strike before June 1.
Head to Kalshi to trade on timing of an NJ Transit strike
At Kalshi, the odds of a strike occurring before June 1 have fluctuated since mid-April, when union members overwhelmingly voted to reject the latest contract proposal. On the morning of May 6, the odds had risen to 76%, as the mid-May deadline for a resolution quickly approaches.
NJ Transit leadership and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, the union that represents NJ Transit engineers, are continuing negotiations on a contract that would increase wages for the engineers. Workers are seeking a wage increase competitive with New York engineers, while management says that is unrealistic and would increase costs and fares significantly.
If an agreement isn’t reached soon, union members could strike as early as May 16, which would effectively shut down the state’s entire commuter train system, leaving thousands of riders to find alternative transportation.
The union and management reached a tentative agreement on March 6. But, on April 15, 93% of eligible union members voted to reject it. That set into motion a 30-day window, after which, if there is no resolution, the workers would go on strike or the NJ Transit could lock out workers. Based on that timeline, a strike or lock-out would begin at 12:01 a.m. on May 16.
In the wake of the contract rejection in April, the odds at Kalshi that a strike would commence before June 1 spiked to 99%. Continuing negotiations and public comments from both sides have seen the odds of a strike rise and fall at Kalshi.
On April 30, NJ Transit CEO Kris Kolluri held a press conference to urge commuters who rely on the rail system to consider working from home in anticipation of a strike. Kolluri also announced a contingency plan that would increase bus service.
Despite Kolluri not sounding hopeful that a strike could be avoided, the odds at Kalshi of a strike occurring before June 1 actually dropped to as low as 56% in the hours following the press conference. But later on May 1, the odds spiked to a recent high of 90%.
On May 5, local media reported on Kolluri’s appearance in front of the New Jersey Assembly Budget Committee, where he said he didn’t “think it’s right” that engineers receive the hefty pay raise they were seeking. The day before, new BLET president Mark Wallace issued a statement to union members in which he said, “This month we will likely be on strike at New Jersey Transit.”
Reports on Kolluri’s and Wallace’s recent statements said that representatives from the union and management were slated to meet later in the day on May 5. That sign that negotiations were ongoing apparently gave some hope to Kalshi traders that a strike might be averted, as odds of a pre-June 1 strike sunk to just 45% overnight.
But by the morning of April 6, the odds had shot back up to 76%, perhaps due to no new news on how the negotiations went, other than that the two sides were expected to meet again on May 7.
The Kalshi market “When will NJ Transit workers go on strike?” opened on March 24 and has attracted nearly $24,000 in trade volume. Traders can pick “Yes” or “No” on the question. The market resolves to “Yes” if the workers go on strike or if NJ Transit locks workers out before June 1.
It’s far from clear whether a strike or lock-out will happen prior to June 1, as negotiations continue and both sides appear to be holding steadfast in their stances. In the meantime, the Kalshi market offers a potential hedge opportunity for union workers in the event a resolution is not agreed upon and there is a work stoppage.
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