Sep 4, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Entering Saturday's games, the Phillies' magic number to clinch the National League East is 14. The Braves and Mets are tied for second place, eight games behind the Fightins. Barring an historic collapse, it's a question of when--not if--your Philadelphia baseball club will lock down the 12th division title in franchise history. (The Phillies also won the NL pennant twice before the Divisional Era.)
Fans looking to attend the clincher may want to start planning now. While it's tough to predict the exact date of that game, we can make an educated guess.
Vegas sportsbooks tell us the Phillies are on track for about 98 wins, while the Braves and Mets should end up with around 88-89 victories.
The Phils need to go 13-8 in their last 21 to get to 98 Ws. Seems reasonable for a team currently riding a six-game winning streak. If 98 is accurate, the remainder of the team's results would probably look something like this:
Green for wins, red for losses
Wins alone should reduce the Phils' magic number by about seven by the time they travel to New York for a four-game series against the Mets beginning September 19.
Vegas tells us the Braves (77-64) and Mets (77-64) will each go about 11-10 or 12-9 to end the season. If the losses are somewhat evenly dispersed throughout their schedules, they should each lose about five or six games before September 19.
That math puts a bullseye on the four-game Phillies/Mets series at Citi Field. The Phils' magic number should be somewhere close to one when the series begins.
Right now, the Phillies fifth starter is lined up to pitch on Thursday the 19th. We'll give that game to the Mets.
But on September 20, Cristopher Sanchez is in line to make the start for the Phillies. And if the Mets are closer in the standings than the Braves, a win that night would reduce the magic number by two--if it's not already down to one.
September 20 feels like the night.
Time to book a road trip to NYC?!?!?
