The Bitcoin 2025 conference is drawing even more attention to the crypto's rising value. Traders at Kalshi are also betting on Bitcoin's future
Will Bitcoin hit $150,000 by the end of 2025? Traders are putting money on that market at Kalshi
The Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas has become ground zero for cryptocurrency's political coronation, with Vice President JD Vance delivering unprecedented federal backing while prediction markets heat up around Bitcoin's march toward $150,000 by year-end.
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market, allows users to trade on Bitcoin price outcomes through year-end. The contract “Will Bitcoin hit $150,000 by December 31, 2025?” currently trades at 35 cents, reflecting market confidence in a 35% probability of Bitcoin reaching that milestone.
Trading on Bitcoin markets at Kalshi is easy. If a trader believes Bitcoin will breach $150K, they might buy a “Yes” contract at 37 cents. If Bitcoin hits the target, they receive $1 per contract, earning 63 cents profit. If Bitcoin stays below $150K, they lose their 37¢ investment.
The 37-cent pricing reflects traders' collective assessment that political tailwinds, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity create a favorable environment for continued Bitcoin appreciation.
Sign up here to claim a $10 Kalshi welcome bonus.
Vice President JD Vance electrified the Venetian Convention Center crowd on Wednesday, May 28, declaring to over 35,000 cryptocurrency enthusiasts, “This isn't a conference of people; this is a movement.”
“I think this conference, this movement of people, is where the future of cryptocurrency in this great country gets decided. So let's start by making one thing abundantly clear, that future is going to be decided by the people, by you, not by unelected bureaucrats,” Vance proclaimed. “Crypto finally has a champion and an ally in the White House.”
His appearance coincided with Trump Media's announcement of a $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury acquisition, underscoring the administration's “Bitcoin First” strategy.
“It's great to be here with bitcoin at $108,000, at least when I checked this morning,” Vance quipped, acknowledging his own cryptocurrency holdings.
Vance outlined an aggressive three-pronged approach to cryptocurrency regulation that has energized prediction market activity around policy outcomes:
Phase 1: End the “Crypto Wars”
“You will never see this administration trying to handicap your community or diminish the impact it's had on the economy,” Vance promised, drawing sharp contrasts with the previous administration's enforcement-heavy approach.
Phase 2: GENIUS Act Fast-Track
The stablecoin regulation bill, currently advancing through Congress, would establish federal oversight for dollar-backed digital currencies. Vance emphasized that regulatory uncertainty has pushed too much stablecoin activity overseas.
Phase 3: Comprehensive Framework
The final phase involves creating what Vance called “transparent and tailored regulatory framework for digital assets” that's “pro-innovation and fully incorporates crypto into the mainstream economy.”
Bull Case - Why Odds Could Rise to 75%+:
• Political momentum is accelerating: The Trump administration's crypto-first policies could trigger faster institutional adoption than markets anticipate
• Corporate treasury trend: Following Trump Media's $2.5 billion Bitcoin buy, analysts expect Fortune 500 companies to announce similar moves throughout 2025
• Regulatory clarity timeline: If the GENIUS Act passes by Q3 and comprehensive crypto framework follows by Q4, institutional floodgates could open
• Technical factors: Bitcoin's post-halving cycle historically peaks 12-18 months after the event, putting peak potential in late 2025
Bear Case - Why Odds Could Drop to 10%:
• Macroeconomic headwinds: Rising interest rates and potential recession could dampen risk asset appetite
• Profit-taking pressure: Bitcoin's 400%+ run from 2024 lows may trigger institutional rebalancing
• Regulatory delays: Congressional gridlock could slow pro-crypto legislation, maintaining institutional uncertainty
Likely Outcome: Bitcoin reaches $130K-$140K range (72% probability), falling just short of the $150K target.
Wall Street analysts are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin's trajectory. “I apologize that my USD120k Q2 target may be too low,” Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, said in a tongue-in-cheek comment after Bitcoin's recent surge.
Several industry watchers who spoke to CNBC forecast bitcoin will hit $200,000 in 2025. Meanwhile, Sina Golara, co-founder and COO of 21st Capital, utilizes a quantile regression model to predict that Bitcoin will trade between $136,000 and $285,000 by the end of 2025.
Analysts from Bitwise, Standard Chartered, and VanEck see bitcoin rising to the $180,000 to $200,000 levels in 2025. The consensus points to continued institutional adoption and regulatory clarity as primary drivers.
The Bitcoin conference schedule on Thursday, May 29 features what may be cryptocurrency's most symbolically charged moment: Ross Ulbricht's first public speech since receiving a presidential pardon in January. The Silk Road founder's address, titled “Freedom, Decentralization, Unity,” represents a full-circle moment for the crypto community.
Prediction markets on Kalshi are allowing traders to bet on specific terms Ulbricht might mention. These real-time sentiment markets can provide insights into public expectations around his remarks.
Here were the odds at Kalshi for Ulbricht’s speech mentions as of Thursday afternoon:
“Decentralized” (Current odds: 74%) This appears underpriced. Ulbricht's entire philosophy centers on decentralization principles. Given his speech title “Freedom, Decentralization, Unity,” this should trade closer to 95%.
“Pardon” (Current odds: 72%) Fairly priced. While acknowledging Trump's clemency is expected, Ulbricht may focus forward rather than backward-looking gratitude.
“Silk Road” (Current odds: 74%) This looks like the value bet. Despite controversy, Ulbricht will likely address his past directly in his first public remarks.
