Kalshi is offering 2025 Cannes Film Festival award markets
Prediction markets reveal which Cannes film festival frontrunners are gaining momentum for the coveted Palme d'Or and other awards
One of the world’s most famous film festivals is the Cannes Film Festival in Cannes, France. This year’s festival will be held from Tuesday, May 13 to Saturday, May 24, 2025. This is the first major film festival of the new season of film circuits, laying the groundwork for next year's most prominent contenders for the Oscars. Unsurprisingly, top prediction market exchange Kalshi has created six betting markets for the Cannes Film Festival awards.
Sign up here to bet on Cannes predictions at Kalshi.
Traders can bet on their predicted favorites, but they have the disadvantage of having to bet on these films without seeing them. That means you will need to depend on the reactions and reviews found online, along with your own hunches. With over $60,000 cumulatively traded on these markets already, anyone can sign up to Kalshi to legally trade on the Cannes Film Festival markets.
Here are the current updated odds for films up for the Palme d’Or award at Cannes, available for trading now at Kalshi.
The 2025 edition of Cannes, taking place in France, runs from May 13 through May 24. The Cannes Film Festival winners will be announced during the Closing Ceremony on the final day of the festival, Saturday, May 24.
Many films are premiering at this year’s Cannes, and it can be challenging to track all the different movies and reactions. Screen Daily has a Cannes jury grid where they average the scores (out of four stars) from 12 publications and their reviews.
This is a helpful way to see what people think, besides using social media to observe initial reactions and hearing about the length of the film premiere’s standing ovation. Here are 10 standouts to keep an eye on if you’re considering trading on the Cannes film markets.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 86%
Cannes jury grid score average: 2.5
Standing ovation length: 9 minutes
This psychological drama, directed by Lynne Ramsay, stars two heavy hitters in the lead roles — Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson. After its premiere on May 17, Lawrence is getting plenty of buzz surrounding her portrayal, and many consider her the frontrunner for the Best Actress award at Cannes. On Kalshi, after the premiere, her chances rose from 17% to 41%.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 66%
Cannes jury grid score average: 1.5
Standing ovation length: 5 minutes
Ari Aster’s latest film features a cast that includes Joaquin Phoenix, Pedro Pascal, Emma Stone, and Austin Butler. This modern Western, taking place during the COVID pandemic, got mixed reviews after its premiere. The Hollywood Reporter gave the film a not-so-positive review, saying, “the movie is neither suspenseful nor funny enough to work as either.” On Kalshi’s Cannes Award for Palme d’Or? market, Eddington went from 38% on May 2 to its current standing at 1%.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: N/A
Cannes jury grid score average: N/A
Standing ovation length: N/A
Sentimental Value will premiere on May 21, and many believe it is a strong contender for Cannes’ top prize, the Palme d’Or. This is not because of its impressive acting or outstanding cinematography; it’s because the movie is being distributed in North America by Neon. Why does this matter? The last five Palme d’Or prizes were all Neon movies, including last year’s Oscar Best Picture winner, Anora. On Kalshi, it is forecast as the most likely winner at 31% despite not having premiered yet. However, many wonder if this “expectation of greatness” may lead to its ultimate demise. We will have to wait for its premiere to see.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 92%
Cannes jury grid score average: 2.8
Standing ovation length: 3.5 minutes
Premiering on May 14, Sound of Falling is a German drama co-written and directed by Mascha Schilinski. The film was an instant favorite among viewers, with many already claiming it should win the Palme d’Or. Despite a shorter standing ovation, critics praised the generational film and called it the best film of Cannes. On Kalshi’s market for the top prize, the film rose from 14% to 20% after its premiere.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 79%
Cannes jury grid score average: 2.7
Standing ovation length: 11 minutes
The Cannes Film Festival loves black-and-white films, and this Richard Linklater movie earned an impressive standing ovation and praise from director Quentin Tarantino. The movie is about filming the first motion picture of the Nouvelle Vague era in 1959. Cannes voters don’t only love black-and-white films, but movies about cinema itself, if done well. Linklater currently sits at 12% on Kalshi’s Best Director market, with Sound of Falling’s Mascha Schilinski leading at 29%.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 76%
Cannes jury grid score average: 2.3
Standing ovation length: 7.5 minutes
Wes Anderson returns to the Cannes Film Festival with his fourth entry, The Phoenician Scheme, starring Benicio del Toro, Mia Threapleton (Kate Winslet’s daughter), Michael Cera, and Riz Ahmed, to name a few. The film is a dark comedy and has received generally positive reviews so far. Despite its positive reception, the film doesn’t seem likely to win any of the Cannes awards.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 100%
Cannes jury grid score average: 2.8
Standing ovation length: N/A
The Secret Agent is Brazilian filmmaker Kleber Mendonca Filho’s third entry to Cannes. This historical political thriller will be watched after Brazil’s win at the Oscars for Best Foreign Film this past March. Kalshi’s Palme d’Or market forecasts the film at 10%.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 100%
Cannes jury grid score average: N/A
Standing ovation length: 12 minutes
Sentimental Value isn’t Neon’s only film at this year’s Cannes; they also have a second chance to continue their streak with Alpha. The film is directed by Julia Ducournau, who won the Palme d’Or four years ago for her film Titane. Unfortunately, this body horror film has been met with mixed reviews and may have spoiled its chances of winning an award at this year’s festival.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 90%
Cannes jury grid score average: 3.1
Standing ovation length: N/A
Two Prosecutors scored the highest on Screen Daily’s Cannes jury grid, as of May 19, 2025. Directed by Ukrainian filmmaker Sergei Loznitsa, Two Prosecutors is a historical drama taking place in the U.S.S.R. during Joseph Stalin's Great Purge. On Kalshi’s market for the Grand Prix award, Two Prosecutors is the fourth most likely to win, with a 9% chance.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 100%
Cannes jury grid score average: 2.5
Standing ovation length: N/A
Sirat is a co-production between France and Spain, directed and co-written by Oliver Laxe. The film follows a father searching for his daughter in Morocco. The film was met with universal acclaim and is a top contender for both Kalshi’s Palme d’Or and Grand Prix awards.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: 80%
Cannes jury grid score average: N/A
Standing ovation length: 5 minutes
Don’t worry, you’re not the only one surprised to see a Mission: Impossible movie on the list of Cannes films. This is Tom Cruise’s last film (supposedly) of the Mission: Impossible franchise, which premiered at Cannes on May 14. While the film was welcomed at the festival, it is unlikely to win any prizes at Cannes. This film was accepted as “out of competition,” meaning it won’t be eligible for any awards.
Rotten Tomatoes Score: N/A
Cannes jury grid score average: N/A
Standing ovation length: 5.5 minutes
Before the film’s premiere, director Spike Lee presented a surprise honorary Palme d’Or to Denzel Washington, who is in his latest film, Highest 2 Lowest. Lee has a long history with the Cannes Film Festival, premiering his first film at the festival back in 1989. Surprisingly, it is Washington’s first Cannes. The initial reviews of the film are positive, particularly praising Washington’s work in the movie. Highest 2 Lowest is also “out of competition.”
Sign up to Kalshi to trade real money on movie markets today!
