Do prediction market platforms like Kalshi let users trade on U.S. election outcomes?
Prediction market trading on U.S. elections attracted mainstream attention during and after the 2024 presidential race
Political betting has quickly shifted from fringe interest to a mainstream trading activity in the U.S. And, yes, it’s now legal. Thanks to a pivotal 2024 court ruling, regulated prediction market platforms like Kalshi are now allowed to offer election-based contracts to American users.
Kalshi operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it the first federally regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Kalshi and broker platforms like Robinhood and Webull offer event-based trading contracts that resemble financial derivatives more than games of chance. The goal isn’t entertainment — it’s forecasting, backed by real capital.
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The surge in interest during the 2024 presidential election made headlines, with billions wagered globally. Kalshi alone saw over $120 million traded in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. The legal clarity has since opened the door for Americans to participate in political markets just as they do with stocks or commodities.
For those looking to get started with political betting in the U.S., there are a few legitimate platforms available. Kalshi stands out as the most prominent, operating as a CFTC-regulated exchange. It allows traders to buy “Yes” or “No” contracts on real-world outcomes like “Will the GOP win the House?” or “Will Trump win the presidency?” Prices for each contract range from 1-99 cents and pay out $1 per contract if correct. Kalshi’s markets operate like a public trading floor, where the contract price reflects the market’s collective probability estimate.
Meanwhile, Robinhood and Webull entered the election trading space through partnerships with ForecastEx, a registered designated contract market. Both brokers offered “Yes” contracts on the 2024 presidential outcome starting last October. These offerings provided a seamless entry point for investors already familiar with brokerage platforms, expanding access to political trading beyond prediction-focused startups.
To start betting on politics through Kalshi, the first step is to create an account on their website. The platform is available in all 50 states and requires basic identity verification, similar to any financial brokerage. Once your account is approved, you can deposit funds via bank transfer, debit card, or wire.
After funding the account, you can browse available markets. These markets often reflect major political moments — like which party will control Congress, who will win a presidential swing state, or whether specific legislation will pass.
Each market is phrased as a simple “Yes” or “No” question. For example, one 2024 Kalshi market asked, “Will Donald Trump win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?” In late October, traders could buy a “Yes” contract for 63 cents, meaning a correct prediction would return $1 for each contract purchased. If Trump lost, the contract would expire worthless.
The platform updates prices in real time, so as new polling data or headlines emerge, the market reflects those shifts instantly. This creates a dynamic environment where users can trade in and out of positions based on momentum and news. While it looks like betting on the surface, the underlying structure is closer to trading — built for analysis, speed, and strategy.
The legality of political betting in the U.S. changed in 2024, following a key court ruling that favored Kalshi in its dispute with the CFTC. The ruling determined that political event contracts, when offered on a regulated exchange, fall under commodities law and not gambling law. As a result, Kalshi was allowed to offer presidential election contracts for the first time, launching its markets just weeks before the vote. The outcome was staggering. More than $100 million in trades poured into the platform, with swing states like Pennsylvania seeing over $14 million in volume alone.
The broader impact of this shift wasn’t just legal — it was predictive. During the 2024 cycle, prediction markets on Kalshi and other platforms consistently outperformed traditional polls in forecasting outcomes. As traders priced in each news development, from debates to indictments to turnout data, the markets adjusted in real time, offering a more responsive picture than static survey averages. Economists and analysts began using these prices as forward-looking indicators, and public interest in these markets soared.
Political betting is legal now because of how the contracts are structured. As long as there is no use of inside information, these markets are regulated by the CFTC just like any other commodities market. Section 42 of the Gambling Act still applies to insider trading, making it a criminal offense to exploit private information. But for ordinary traders using public information and placing speculative trades, there is no legal barrier. Unlike in sports, where athletes are banned from betting, there are no explicit prohibitions for politicians, though calls for reform are growing.
With the legal landscape shifting and public interest at an all-time high, political betting is poised to become a fixture of U.S. markets. Kalshi and broker-integrated trading through Robinhood or Webull offer not just a way to wager, but a new method of measuring public sentiment. Whether you're forecasting the next Senate majority or trading on state-level outcomes in a presidential race, these platforms turn opinion into opportunity — and they’re only just getting started.
Trade on political markets at Kalshi today!
