Jul 05, 2009; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley (left) and shortstop Jimmy Rollins (right) walk off the field during the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the the New York Mets 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Four ex-Phillies are on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot this year: Bobby Abreu, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Billy Wagner.
Only Wagner is on pace to clear the 75% threshold necessary to join the Hall. But based on data from Ryan Thibodaux’s ballot tracking, all of the other ex-Phils are outperforming their showing from last year’s voting.
© Rick Scuteri | 2006 Jun 5 With 119 of approximately 388 expected ballots returned this year:
- Abreu has received a vote on 21.8% of ballots, compared to 14.8% of ballots last year, and is net +3 votes among known returning voters.
- Rollins has received a vote on 20.2% of ballots, compared to 12.9% of ballots last year, and is net +8 votes among known returning voters.
- Utley has received a vote on 52.1% of ballots, compared to 28.8% of ballots last year, and is net +7 votes among known returning voters.
- Wagner has received a vote on 84.9% of ballots, compared to 73.8% of ballots last year, and is net +8 votes among known returning voters.
Abreu is in his sixth year on the ballot, Rollins is in his fourth, and Utley is in his second. Wagner is on the ballot for his tenth and final year.
© Lou Capozzola | 2005 Mar 4
The most likely outcomes? Wagner will get in this year, Utley will make a steady upward climb and get in after a few years, but Abreu and Rollins will fall short.
A strong case can be made for each player. But Rollins’ best arguments are based on counting stats, which have fallen out of favor among voters in recent years. And while Abreu’s case is strongest in more modern metrics, his candidacy just can’t seem to gain much momentum.
Here’s what Tim wrote about Rollins when filling out a hypothetical ballot:
I think Jimmy Rollins is an all-time great Phillie, and they should retire his number regardless of whether he gets into the Hall of Fame. He just falls short of being Hall of Fame worthy in my mind.
People often compare him to Barry Larkin because they are NL shortstops who won an MVP. Rollins actually does have 115 more hits in his career than Larkin. But Larkin hit .295 for his career. Rollins' MVP season in 2007 when he hit .296 was the only time he topped .295 in a single season. He hit .264 for his career. Larkin had an .815 career OPS, as opposed to Rollins' .743. Larkin had a 67.0 career WAR, while Rollins had a 49.7 WAR.
Rollins was a tremendous fielder and great basestealer. There just weren't enough superstar-level offensive seasons to be Hall of Fame worthy. That's not meant as a dis, he still is a legendary Phillie.
And here are some counterpoints from a shameless Phillies homer who relentlessly campaigns for Rollins:
Complete list of shortstops in the history of MLB with 2000 hits, 200 home runs, and 400 stolen bases:
1) Jimmy Rollins pic.twitter.com/QO3qHbLqqe
Complete list of shortstops in the history of MLB with 700 extra base hits and 400 stolen bases:
1) Honus Wagner (Hall of Fame)
2) Jimmy Rollins pic.twitter.com/u3EUwOajQJ
And none of them match Rollins’ stolen base total. So if you name any player in baseball history, Rollins has them beat in at least 1 of 4 categories (2B/3B/HR/SB).
Jimmy Rollins career stats:
.264/.324/.418, 2455 H, 1421 R, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 470 SB
Median career stats out of the 25 Hall of Famers with 800 games at SS:
.285/.355/.413, 2309 H, 1256 R, 83 HR, 929 RBI, 232 SB
We haven’t even looked at defense yet.
Jimmy Rollins has 4 Gold Gloves and a higher career fielding % than any SS already in the Hall of Fame. pic.twitter.com/mIhftj9unv
Again, a case based mainly on counting stats. But while one wouldn't look at counting stats if acquiring a player for future potential, it says here that they should still be a factor in Hall of Fame consideration. And if writers are modernizing the way they vote, why do Rollins detractors consistently bring up his batting average (another supposedly out-of-date metric)?
Turning to Abreu, here's Tim's assessment:
Considering he hit .291 with 2,470 hits and 400 stolen bases, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Abreu has generated a grassroots HOF campaign. I think he was vastly under-appreciated during his career, both because much of his peak came during the Steroid Era and because he was on some bad teams. Walks weren't as valued at that time as they are now either. Still, Abreu wasn't a particularly effective fielder, and I do think there's something to be said for how you were perceived during your career. Abreu was seen as an excellent player, but probably not quite Cooperstown worthy.
Abreu is a very interesting candidate. Based on the metrics currently in fashion among BBWAA voters, it's a bit surprising that a high OBP and WAR guy isn't generating more buzz. Tim's point is a strong one, however: Abreu was simply never regarded as a HoF-level player when he was active, as evidenced by his lack of All-Star Game appearances. So he was always destined for an uphill climb.
Abreu had more runs scored than both Gwynn and Ichiro.
Abreu had more times safely on base than both Gwynn and Ichiro.
Abreu had more home runs than Gwynn and Ichiro combined (h/t @obxleatherman).
Abreu had more bases on balls than Gwynn and Ichiro combined (h/t @BoswaOnX). https://t.co/vaTBALhLYt
#Phillies Bobby Abreu and Bryce Harper through 13 seasons. pic.twitter.com/AEF3d45myp
Phillies fans can at least rest easy that Dick Allen will finally take his rightful place in Cooperstown this year, thanks to a decision from the Hall's 16-member Classic Baseball Era Committee in December.
Want more Philadelphia Phillies news delivered straight to your inbox? Sign up for THE Philly Sports Newsletter here. 100% free, always.
