Trump’s First 100 Days: The Good, Bad, and Ugly

President Trump’s first 100 days of his second term are coming to an end, and they were not without fireworks—undeniable regardless of one’s political affiliation.

The president has put forth a complex mix of policy actions, public statements, and frequent social media posts. Meanwhile, prediction market traders have been hanging on his every word, trading millions of dollars on questions related to his presidency on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Sign up to Kalshi here to place real money trades on economic markets today.

Recapping Trump’s first 100 days
From pardons to controversial cabinet nominations to trade deals, here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly of Trump’s first 100 days, plus what to expect from the administration during the next 100. 

The Good: Ross Ulbricht Freed
President Trump fulfilled a campaign promise to pardon 41-year-old Russ Ulbricht, who had served 11 years in prison after being sentenced to two terms, without the possibility of parole, for creating and operating the darkweb marketplace Silk Road.

Activists believed the sentence was unusually cruel, and there were corruption complaints of the two federal agents who were originally involved in the case against Ulbricht, both of whom were eventually arrested and charged with fraud and money laundering.

Whatever one thinks of Ulbricht and Silk Road, the fact is the president kept his word and fulfilled a major campaign promise that he made while on the campaign trail.

On Kalshi, more than $700,000 was traded on Ulbricht’s pardon, with his ‘Yes’ price reaching as low as 56 cents. Other pardons that have been speculated on but not yet given include Sam Bankman-Fried, Eric Adams, Michael Cohen, Derek Chauvin, Diddy, Edward Snowden, Rudy Guiliani, Steve Bannon, and Julian Assange.

The Bad: Trade policy
The administration’s sporadic approach to trade has resulted in capital flight, rising recession odds, and the wiping out of trillions of dollars in the stock market. Not only is investor confidence shaken, but American consumers are already starting to feel the impact through higher prices on goods, which will continue to rise on everything ranging from electronics to groceries so long as the president stubbornly supports ancient and debunked protectionist policies.

Rather than pursuing clear, negotiated deals, the White House has favored an on-again, off-again approach to tariffs and sanctions—especially with China and the European Union—leaving businesses with little visibility into future costs. On prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, contracts tied to a 2025 recession have surged, with the probability of a formal recession being declared this year climbing from 24% to 56%.The dreary forecast was mostly self-induced.

While Trump maintains that the aggressive stance will yield better deals in the long run, the short-term instability has rattled markets and raised concerns among economists about a potential downturn just as inflation was beginning to cool.

More and more, it’s beginning to sound like Trump simply—and erroneously—believes trade deficits are a measure of wealth flowing out of the U.S. and into other countries. Economists from all around the political spectrum disagree.

The Ugly: Strained relations with Canada

Relations with Canada—America’s closest ally and largest trading partner—have hit their worst point in decades since Trump took office and picked a fight with our northern neighbors for seemingly no reason.

After Trump floated new tariffs on Canadian steel and lumber, accused Ottawa of "manipulating migration flows," and openly questioned the value of the USMCA trade deal, diplomatic ties have frayed badly.

Markets have noticed. On Polymarket, the odds of a major U.S.-Canada trade deal renegotiation by July sits at merely 33%. Now, Kalshi traders are pricing in a growing likelihood of a formal Canadian tariff response by the summer.

With U.S. businesses and farmers warning that another trade war could be disastrous, and public sentiment in Canada turned sharply against the U.S.

In fact, the fractured relationship ironically turned the Canadian electorate against conservative Pierre Poilievre in Canada’s April election for prime minister. In other words, Donald Trump handed the recent election to the liberals.

What’s next for the Trump administration?

With the first 100 days behind us, it’s time to look forward. The president undoubtedly has an audacious if unpredictable agenda that, at least in theory, includes streamlining government departments to become more efficient, changing the government’s approach and regulation of crypto, and making America more independent when it comes to products that impact national security.

Though prediction markets have resolved for markets tailored to Trump’s first 100 days, there’s still plenty of political predictions to make. Here are among the most pressing questions you can bet on when you sign up for on Kalshi.

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?

Who will Trump fire?

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve this year?

Will Trump declassify Epstein documents?

Will the Trump administration eliminate the Department of Education?

Will Trump buy Greenland?

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

What countries will Trump visit in his first year?

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Will Trump be allowed to run for a third term?

What are prediction markets?

If you’re new to prediction markets, they might sound a bit like gambling, or a sportsbook for politics. Kalshi specifically is a regulated platform where users can buy and sell contracts on the outcome of real-world events, such as economic indicators, election results, policy decisions, and beyond..

Each contract trades between 1 and 99 cents, representing the probability of an event happening. If the event occurs, it pays out $1; if it doesn’t, it pays nothing. Like a stock, these contracts can increase or decrease in value, and the prices reflect real-time forecasts. The shifting prices reflect the market's collective view on what’s likely to happen, which have often been shown to be more accurate than experts and punditry.

Kalshi specializes in these kinds of real-world contracts. Users can trade on everything from interest rate decisions and unemployment numbers to whether Trump will visit a foreign country or eliminate a federal agency.

How to sign up and bet on politics

Getting started on a prediction market like Kalshi is simple:

STEP 1: Create an account – Head to Kalshi and sign up using your email address. You’ll need to verify your identity, birthday, and address. Users who are 18 years or older and have a U.S. address are eligible to trade..

STEP 2: Deposit funds – Once verified, you can fund your account via bank transfer, debit card, or other supported methods. Most users start with $25–$100, though there’s no minimum.

STEP 3: Browse markets – Explore hundreds of live political markets, such as  "Will there be a recession in 2025?" and “How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago this month?”

STEP 4: Buy shares – Decide if you think an event will happen or not. Buy 'Yes' or 'No' shares based on your prediction. For example, if "Will Trump visit China this year?" is trading at 26 cents, that means the market believes there’s a 26% chance it will happen. If you think it’s more likely, you can buy 'Yes' shares and profit if you’re right.

STEP 5: Track results – As events unfold, share prices rise or fall. You can sell before resolution to lock in gains or wait for the final outcome. If you're right, your shares pay out $1 each.

Political prediction markets are a great way to test your wits, leverage your expertise, and/or understand public sentiment and forecasts in real time. Prediction markets are the news.

Start small, trade what you know, follow what you don’t, and have fun testing your instincts against the crowd.