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Assessing Prediction Models and Sportsbook Odds on the Devils’ Shot at the Stanley Cup

The New Jersey Devils have enjoyed a superb return to form this season. In 2022/23, the roster loaded with top young talents powered the team to third in the Eastern Conference and the Second Round of the postseason. The returns waned in 2023/24, with the Devils sinking to seventh in the conference, but now they’re back on track.

With a .563 points percentage by the 72-game-mark, the Devils were third in the Metropolitan Division and seven points clear of missing a playoff spot. Naturally, with the Stanley Cup Playoffs being so unpredictable, this gives the Devils a shot at the crown, but their ranking certainly varies from place to place.

Devils are Long Shots, but the Favourites Vary

Given their position, it’s understandable that even in the chaotic NHL postseason, the New Jersey Devils are long-shots to win it all. Out at around +3000 with most bookmakers, prediction machines put them as far out as having between a 1.4 and 2.7 percent shot at winning the Cup.

It gets much more interesting higher up the odds and projections. The Washington Capitals and Winnipeg Jets are seemingly primed to win their respective conferences having sealed the first places in the playoffs and breaching the 100-point mark long before any other team. Naturally, projection models at least have them in their top fives.

Yet, leading the way with most bookmakers are the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers at around +600. The Stars have been very impressive defensively, and the Panthers could become only the third team since the 1980s to go to three successive Finals. The two look to be the best equipped for the rigors of the playoffs.

Still, even though they’re the favorites, +600 odds certainly show hesitation from the oddsmakers. It’s this that many fans will jump on to make the most of long odds on the teams that seemingly look the best. For this, the top betting sites for new users can offer extra value through bonuses and promotions, including boosted odds.

Can the Devils Beat the Odds?

In theory, the Devils can beat the odds. However, doing so would defy recent convention. The triumph of the St. Louis Blues back in 2019 showed the biggest leap of the last decade from overall standings to champion. That season, the Blues finished 12th overall with 99 points and a .604 win percentage.

On the flip side, the Devils certainly won’t suffer the curse of winning the Presidents’ Trophy. Since the mid-80s, only eight teams have won the Presidents’ Trophy and the Stanley Cup in the same campaign. A few big factors do play into New Jersey’s hand and make their standing a bit misleading.

With ten games to go, New Jersey boasted an 82.6 penalty kill percentage and a 27.4 powerplay percentage – both of which were good for fourth in the NHL. Less so the PP%, but both are often seen as indicators of potential playoff success. Still, they’ll need the goaltenders to also get hot.

Netminders invariably determine the strength of a team’s playoff run. So far this season, Jacob Markström hasn’t exactly been top-tier. The 2.50 GAA and .900 SV% aren’t nice to look at, but the three shutouts are. Luckily, the team did trade in Jake Allen last season, who has a mildly better save percentage at .912.

By all accounts, the Devils will need to dig extra deep and hope that one of their goalie tandem gets hot just in time for the playoffs. If they do, as we’ve seen before, New Jersey could upset the odds and prediction models and surge through the postseason.

author

Chris Bates

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