Oct 28, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) before playing against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game three of the 2024 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images Brad Penner
Every Tuesday, On Pattison's Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo will answer your questions from social media pertaining to the Phillies. Let's get to it.
@ThirtyBallparks on Threads: What do you think the odds are that Juan Soto becomes a Phillie, and if he does what will the Phillies have to give up to be able to afford him?
Tim Kelly: As I've written, the Phillies should absolutely check in on Soto, but I'm not sure what their pitch is to woo him away from New York — probably the Yankees, maybe the Mets — is unless he secretly hates NYC.
As far as what the Phillies would have to give up to afford a deal worth $600+ million for Soto, that kind of comes down to how much managing partner John Middleton is willing to increase what's already one of the highest payrolls in the sport.
But while I wouldn't say there's no chance the Phillies to sign Soto, it's probably way closer to 1% than 100%.
Anthony SanFilippo: To channel my inner Lloyd Christmas, "So you're saying there's a chance," Tim?
I believe the Phillies will be players for sure. Remember, a frontline starter was not a position of need last offseason and yet, the Phillies were a finalist for Yoshi Yamamoto, and that means they were offering more than $300 million for an unknown entity.
Soto isn't just a known entity, he's the best hitter in the sport. And he's only 26 years old.
He's going to get more than $600 million. I also think his contract is going to be in the teens when it comes to term. Something like 15 years, $660 million sounds about right.
If I had to guess, I'd still say the Mets are frontrunners to get him, with the Yankees a close second, but the Phillies are probably next on my list of possibilities, and I will never underestimate that Soto is friendly with a few players and absolutely adores hitting coach Kevin Long.
Hey, maybe that plane ride with the Phillies from the 2023 All-Star Game in Seattle laid the groundwork....
Per @BNightengale this morning.
"The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to strongly pursue him to team up with Boras client Bryce Harper." pic.twitter.com/IoXa7B0vbH
@Philly_Isaac on X: What’s the most realistic contract the Phillies could offer Soto?
Tim Kelly: I'm not sure any of the numbers in the Soto discussion are going to seem realistic. Given what he's accomplished and that he's only 26, he's probably the best free agent since Alex Rodriguez became a free agent after the 2000 season and got what was then a record-setting 10-year/$252 million deal.
Fernando Tatis Jr. currently has the longest MLB contract at 14 years, while the present-day annual value of Shohei Ohtani's deal is around $460 million. So if you're trying to make him say no to the best possible offer, something like 15 years and $750 million ($50 million per season) would be a pretty good offer.
Whether the Phillies will actually offer that or if signing someone for a decade and a half would even play out well remains to be seen.
Anthony SanFilippo: Here's the thing, I don't think he gets to $50 million a year if the term is that long, and I think the term will be long, so I'm coming in under that AAV.
However, if Soto is willing to take something shorter, or wants opt outs built in, I can see a team maybe giving him $50 million per for, say, the next eight years.
And when it comes to realism, the Phillies, are, in fact, one of a handful of teams who can make contract offers that are seemingly unrealistic. They have that kind of cash and cache.
@Will_Ryan14 on X: Thoughts on the catcher situation. Will Marchan be the backup next year? Could we see J.T. playing less games in hopes to prevent an end of season burnout or injury? Has Stubbs played his last game as a Phillie?
Tim Kelly: Rob Thomson admitted during his year-end press conference that he'll have some work to do in convincing Realmuto to accept a smaller role. But as he enters his age-34 season, it's probably what's best.
As far as backup catcher, my guess is the Phillies will bring Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs to Spring Training. If Marchán is healthy, he's out of options and my guess is he'll be the backup. But you have Stubbs as an insurance plan.
Stubbs does have one remaining minor-league option, so maybe he'll be optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley if Marchán makes the team. That would be a little awkward after he spent three whole seasons with the Phillies, though.
From @TimKellySports: Rob Thomson Has To Do ‘Some Convincing’ To Get J.T. Realmuto To Accept More Frequent off Days
Go here: https://t.co/gBJjbiEbH5 pic.twitter.com/ORDAjbJOay
Anthony SanFilippo: Tim pretty much nailed this one on the head, but I do want to add a couple more bits to his answer.
First, Stubbs can not refuse an option to the minors because he has not accrued enough major league service time, so as awkward as that is - and it is awkward - it's certainly a good ace in the hole to have a capable veteran as your third option.
But, there's always one other possibility - maybe the Phillies look to add another player who can catch, but can also play elsewhere in the field, and carry three guys who can catch. Perhaps one who can hit better and one who is better defensively.
That guy doesn't exist in free agency, but maybe he does via trade. I don't think it's as easy as Marchan and Stubbs duking it out in Clearwater.
@ChrisFried78 on X: Which Phillies prospect not named Painter will have the biggest impact for the team in 2025?
Tim Kelly: I'd probably say Justin Crawford, but I'm kind of hedging my bets. He could be in play as an outfield option in the second half of the season after finishing this past year at Double-A Reading.
He could also have an impact by being traded for a piece ready to contribute to a contending team in 2025, whether it's this offseason or next summer.
Phillies prospect Justin Crawford (who looks exactly like his dad, Carl) on trade rumors and his desire to play in Philly.
Said since he was drafted his mindset was “I wanna get to Philly as fast as I can.” @PhilliesNation @OnPattison pic.twitter.com/37uHeGtcR3
Anthony SanFilippo: Just because Crawford could make it to the majors at some point in 2025, doesn't mean he's going to have the biggest impact. I think there's a chance the answer to the question is a name that nobody really talks about.
It's times like this that I look at who the Phillies sent to the Arizona Fall League. And there's a guy who through his first 10 games has picked up right where he left off at the end of the season, and that guy is a fun story - it's Otto Kemp.
Kemp, 25, is an infielder who went undrafted but the Phillies took a chance on him as an undrafted free agent, and he's developed nicely.
A late bloomer, Kemp played at all four levels of the Phillies minor league system in 2024 where he hit a combined .285 had an on base percentage of .392 and had an OPS of .881 while slugging 49 extra base hits in 123 games.
So far, in the AFL, he's 9-for-29 (.310) with four homers and 16 RBIs in 10 games. His OPS is 1.247.
And there's this - at his end of season press conference, Dave Dombrowski was asked about prospects and if there were any players knocking on the door. He talked about Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford but he also said this:
"Kemp's a guy that really came out of nowhere in many ways," Dombrowski said. "He's a guy that could come to camp and surprise."
No one asked about Kemp. Dombrowski brought him up on his own. I'd bookmark his name for that reason alone.
@Drambro on X: Is Griff McGarry worth being protected from the Rule-5 Draft?
Tim Kelly: McGarry did not have a good season for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, posting a 4.70 ERA in 29 relief appearances. In his first year as a reliever, control problems continued to plague him, as he had nearly as many walks (36) as strikeouts (40).
McGarry had been impressive though so far in 6 2/3 scoreless innings in the Arizona Fall League. With that said, he's still walked six batters over that stretch.
My lean is yes, protect him for now. The flip side of that is you would have to then keep him on the 40-man roster or designate him for assignment to remove him from the 40-man if you needed to clear a spot later in the offseason.
Phillies prospect Griff McGarry has kept opponents scoreless in the Arizona Fall League this season.
McGarry’s stats:
3 G | 6.2 IP | 2 H | 0 ER | 6 BB | 9 K pic.twitter.com/kqilfepIde
Anthony SanFilippo: I don't get to watch him pitch in person, so I can only look at the numbers, and the numbers weren't great - and that makes two years in a row for a guy who is now four seasons into his pro career and has seen his walk rate continue to spike well beyond acceptable ceilings.
He's seen his stock fall in the organization and he's likely not a guy the Phillies can get any value for via trade.
So, is he worth the 40-man spot? I don't think he is. That's not to say there's no hope for him, but I have a hard time holding onto a pitcher on the 40-man roster who you can never add to the major league club because he's nowhere close to being ready to pitch there.
And we lived the No. 5 starter nightmare this season when the Phillies were bereft of options to fill in for that spot on the roster because they didn't have the talent on the 40-man. So, why make it worse?
If a team wants to take a flier and put him on their MLB roster now, by all means, good luck to them.
And if not, and he isn't selected, the Phillies can continue to develop him as they see fit. No harm, no foul.
In many ways, I think this stint in the AFL is his final chance to prove he deserves to stay, but I think he really has to impress. Just being okay might not be good enough.
And if that costs the Phillies having him in the system to ensure they have a more reliable option for that No. 5 spot to share the load with Painter next season, then it's not going to kill the Phillies to lose him.
