Sep 18, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Devin Williams (38) reacts after pitching in the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Benny Sieu
When Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski holds his year-end press conference next Tuesday, we'll have a better idea of how the organization plans to pick up the pieces following their elimination in the NLDS by the division-rival New York Mets.
Until then, you're left to speculate on how Dombrowski and the Phillies may attack this offseason, knowing that just running it back again probably wouldn't be the best strategy to finally get over the hump in October.
One area that the Phillies have largely resisted making major investments at since Dombrowski was hired in December of 2020 is closer. But there may have been the perfect storm of events in recent weeks for that to change this winter.
First and foremost, the Phillies bullpen melted down in October. It would be easier to point out the pitchers in the bullpen — which was largely effective during the regular season — that didn't struggle in the postseason than those who did. Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estévez, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, José Alvarado ... you name it, they all struggled.
Some of that might have been a bit fluky, but after consecutive years where the bullpen let the Phillies down in the postseason, Dombrowski might have to think bigger with how he constructs the arm barn this offseason. Both Hoffman and Estévez will be free agents, and among the most-coveted relievers available on the open market. There is something to be said for letting the dust settle on the season and not making a rash decision to rule out bringing someone back based on a few poor performances, specifically in the case of Hoffman, who had a 2.28 ERA over 122 games the past two seasons for the Phillies.
Jeff Hoffman: “Yeah, it sucks. All-Star wasn’t one of my goals, World Series was.” @PhilliesNation @OnPattison pic.twitter.com/K5aMhQVg9L
At the same time, Dombrowski is going to have a plaque in Cooperstown one day thanks in large part to his ability to spot a hole on a very good team and fix it, allowing them to become a great team. Where Dombrowski shines over some of the executives with Wall St. and/or Ivy League backgrounds is he's not always trying to prove he's the smartest person in the room. If there's an issue, he'll find the best player available to fix it and acquire them, even if it takes overpaying to a degree.
Well, it just so happens that two of the game's elite closers — Devin Williams of the Milwaukee Brewers and Ryan Helsley of the St. Louis Cardinals — might be available via trade this winter.
The lasting impression of Williams from this past season, like many in the Phillies bullpen, will be not being able to get the job done against the Mets. He entered Game 3 of the NLWCS at home with a chance to close out the Mets, and instead struggled with his control before giving up what proved to be the game-winning home run to Pete Alonso.
At the same time, since Williams became a mainstay in 2020 — when he edged out Alec Bohm to win NL Rookie of the Year — he's been one of the best relievers in baseball. First he was a set-up man for Josh Hader, and now he's the closer for the Brewers. Over that period, he has a 1.70 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 14.6 K/9 and 68 saves. Since the start of the 2020 season, Emmanuel Clase, likely to finish in the top five in AL Cy Young voting this season, is the only reliever who has accumulated more WAR than Williams, per FanGraphs.
Devin Williams, K'ing the Side.
Death by Airbenders. 🛸🛸🛸 pic.twitter.com/w5ZIL2pLbo
Williams, 30, is entering a contract year, and Brewers general manager Matt Arnold hinted in his year-end press conference that the team might be willing to consider trade offers for him.
"We have to stay open-minded," Arnold said, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. "We're the smallest market in the league, so that's something that's required in this."
Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cardinals are openly admitting 2025 will be something of a transition year. John Mozeliak will be in his final year as president of baseball operations. Chaim Bloom — once the top baseball executive for the Boston Red Sox — will overhaul the player development system next year, before succeeding Mozeliak in 2026.
The Cardinals — as noted by Katie Woo of The Athletic — plan to trim their MLB payroll for 2025, reallocating some of that money elsewhere in the organization. Why multi-billionaire owner Bill DeWitt Jr. couldn't fund both isn't clear, but the frugalness of the 83-year-old owner and Bill DeWitt III, his 56-year-old son who is the president of the team, could work in the favor of the Phillies.
Among the attractive pieces on St. Louis' roster is Helsley. Like Williams, Helsley is a dominant 30-year-old closer who is entering his contract year. MLB Trade Rumors' Matt Swartz currently estimates that Helsley will make $6.9 million in his final year of arbitration. Mozeliak could kill two birds with one stone in a trade of Helsley; shedding the salary and restocking some of the organization's young talent.
Helsley did allow the Phillies to come back in Game 1 of the 2022 NLWCS, blowing a save and injecting life into this era of Phillies baseball. Helsley dealt with numbness in his middle finger in that game, which partially contributed to him hitting Bohm and the Cardinals self-destructing in the ninth.
There is always an injury risk when talking about a closer who averages 99.6 mph on his fastball. But there's also dominance that comes when you can control pitches at that velocity, as Helsley can. He was an All-Star for the second time in his career in 2024, setting a new franchise single-season record with 49 saves, and leading the NL with 62 games finished.
Either Williams or Helsley would give the Phillies a shutdown closer, leaving zero gray area about who would be getting the light show at Citizens Bank Park when a save situation rolls around in the ninth inning.
Whether the Phillies have the stomach to give up what it would take to acquire either pitcher remains to be seen.
By all accounts, the Phillies have no interest in trading No.1 prospect Andrew Painter. But infielder Aidan Miller, outfielder Justin Crawford, shortstop Starlyn Caba and catcher Eduardo Tait are among the prospects in Philadelphia's farm system that could be of interest to other teams in a mega trade.
Depending upon how the Phillies feel about them moving forward, any of Bohm, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott — all of whom have multiple remaining years before free agency — could also potentially be part of a trade.
Alec Bohm on if he’s at a crossroads: “No, I know where I’ll be next year.” @OnPattison @PhilliesNation pic.twitter.com/MzCAMAf9a8
If Dombrowski is going to make a major trade, he may prefer to put those type of resources into acquiring an outfielder or another front-line pitcher, such as Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox.
But this is an executive who once traded for Craig Kimbrel at the height of his powers, bringing him to Boston in a deal with the San Diego Padres in November of 2015. It was just three months after he was hired by the Red Sox. At that time, Dombrowski took on $24 million over two years and a $13 million club option for 2018, which the team eventually picked up.
So just because Dombrowski hasn't made a major investment in the closer position since coming to the Phillies doesn't mean he won't. And this offseason would be as good of a time to do it as any.
