Oct 9, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Carlos Estevez (53) reacts after giving up a grand slam to New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) in the sixth inning in game four of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
After the Phillies lost both Games 6 and 7 in the NLCS a year ago, there was an overwhelming disbelief in their clubhouse.
How they could let such an incredible opportunity slip through their fingers was going to take a long time to sink in. Hell, last week, Phillies president Dave Dombrowski said those losses are some of the toughest he's ever had to endure in his soon-to-be labeled, Hall of Fame career.
"They'll linger for the rest of my life," Dombrowski said of the two losses to the Diamondbacks. "I've been part of series' - I can go back to 2006 and 2013 and tell you a series that we should have won and why I thought we should have won and we got beat.
"Somebody asked me how many times I've been to the World Series and I say five times. How many have I won? Two. It feels a lot better when you win the two than lose the three."
A year later, those numbers are still the same for Dombrowski, and the feeling has changed from disbelief to something else entirely.
"It f****** hurts." 😳
Kyle Schwarber shares his thoughts on being eliminated in the NLDS. pic.twitter.com/otKqauIVYR
"It fucking hurts. It's not a good feeling," said Kyle Schwarber, the de facto captain of the team. "It's a weird feeling. That felt like an interesting series. You give credit to them because they did a great job but also too, it felt like it was hard to get something going. That was the battle ... just felt like we couldn't get that big inning going.
"That's the unsettling thing. There's always going to be 'what ifs,' right? Everything is going to play through everyone's head. And that's natural. What could you have done better? You can't change an outcome, but it felt like there was something just avoiding us there."
So, it went from disbelief to unsettling. And then there was this from Nick Castellanos, who once again was the first Phillie to speak after the loss.
"Give them the credit, they beat us," he said. "But are there a lot of things we could have done better? Yes. Are there things we could have done different? Yes. Do I think that they are the better team? No. But this series, they were."
Things they could have done differently. Hmmm.
Maybe Trea Turner put it best.
"You just feel like, you know, you failed," he said. "When your goal is to win the World Series, and we've talked about it plenty, it's nothing but, you know, kind of a failure."
It sure is.
Now, the reason for all of this exposition to get to the crux of the matter is the Phillies knew what their flaws were at the end of 2023. They knew what they had to fix to get better, and rather than go for the gusto, they dabbled by trying to improve the margins.
The notion was the team was going to be better in the regular season, it just needed to stay healthy, and that if there are needs, they can be addressed at the deadline.
The lone move of substance last offseason was re-signing Aaron Nola. Everything else would be run back as it was in 2023 because, after all, they should have beaten the Diamondbacks and gone back to the World Series.
And ultimately, that line of thinking is where they failed.
Consider that at the end of 2023:
And yet, how those were addressed was negligible at best.
But the team got off to an historic start, and the belief was there that these guys wanted to get back to playoffs so they can finish the job they couldn't a season earlier.
As such, the approach at the trade deadline was equally as lukewarm as it was in the offseason - looking for marginal benefits to cover over the same team weaknesses.
And it bit them. It bit them hard.
FRANCISCO LINDOR. GRAND SLAM. #NLDS pic.twitter.com/CdKuEVOfT3
There were 18 players who didn't play a game for the Phillies in 2023 who played for them in 2024. Of the 18, four were in the organization last year, just toiling in the minors, or injured - Rafael Marchan, Cal Stevenson, Aramis Garcia and Tyler Phillips.
The other 14 were players Dombrowski either signed or traded for as part of the 2024 season.
Combined the 18 players amassed a WAR of 1.4.
By comparison, Edmundo Sosa alone was worth 2.3 WAR as a reserve player.
Get the picture?
Here were the values of each of those players. You may have forgotten a few of these guys even existed.
(all WAR totals are from Baseball-Reference.com)
That means the best "new" contributor to the Phillies in 2024 didn't play a game for them after June 25th and he was removed from the starting rotation to make room once again for Taijuan Walker.
Woof.
So, when you look back and say the same problems that got the Phillies in the end of 2022 and 2023 got them again in 2024, it's a little misleading because each was a small sample size - three games in 2022, two games in 2023 and four games in 2024.
But it's totally fair to say not enough was done to improve the possibility that what happened in the past didn't happen again.
There's no question Dave Dombrowski is one of the best baseball executives of his era. You don't take four different teams to the World Series on dumb luck. But even the best of the best strikeout sometimes, and for 2024 Dombrowski was caught looking.
He may have backed himself into a corner a little bit with the money he's handed out to veteran players. There may not be a lot more room financially to play in the market for free agents barring trades that would change the look of the roster.
Do you move on from the final two years of the Nick Castellanos contract now that he put together his most consistent season (from May forward) in his time with the Phillies and was one of only two trusted hitters down the stretch and in the playoffs?
Do you try to cash in on Alec Bohm being an All-Star third baseman and get some value in return? He doesn't think he's going anywhere, but it makes sense to explore it to find ways to improve the team.
Alec Bohm on if he’s at a crossroads: “No, I know where I’ll be next year.” @OnPattison @PhilliesNation pic.twitter.com/MzCAMAf9a8
There are a lot of questions that Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld and the rest of their brain trust have to answer over what is sure to be a long winter of discontent.
And now that they've failed in the postseason for a third straight year, they are no longer playing with house money as far as the fanbase is concerned.
The same problems still exist. They need to fix the outfield. Fix the bullpen and add starting pitching depth.
To his credit, Dombrowski was hot and heavy after Chicago White Sox burgeoning starter Garrett Crochet at the trade deadline, that just didn't pan out.
Estevez was an OK acquisition, but man, what a terrible ending for him. He said he'd like to be back, but also pointed out that he knows the business and we'll see what happens in the off season. He and Jeff Hoffman are both free agent relievers who are going to get paid. It's possible the Phillies try to bring both back, but it's more likely they only bring one or neither. And if it's one, it's probably Hoffman.
Hays has one year of arbitration left, but boy, was he a disappointment. They'd have been better off keeping Merrifield. Combine that with Johan Rojas not being the answer in centerfield and for a second offseason in a row it's a position of need that sticks out like a sore thumb.
The Phillies need more than changes along the margins this time. And to get there, it might mean a difficult deletion or two from a very close-knit clubhouse. But that's the reality of the situation.
They had their chance and whiffed. Badly. From Dombrowski on down. And the definition of insanity would be to go to the well a third straight season without noticeable change.
It's on the surefire Hall of Fame executive to get it done - because like his players, he sure didn't get it done in 2024. And like last year's losses to the Diamondbacks, that, too, should linger with him for the rest of his life.
