As inflation rises and housing becomes more expensive, Americans are clinging to market conditions to decide who to vote for. With the cost of living increasing and income growth stalling, voters are keen to assess the proposed economic plans of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Explore the key economic factors shaping voter preferences and the potential long-term impact of the election.
A strong focus on the economy is already showing, with around 81% of voters greatly considering the economy. However, there are notable gaps in the priorities of each party. For example, Trump supporters mostly prioritise the economy (93%), while Harris supporters tend to focus more on healthcare (76%).
Rising prices can decrease support for the ruling party, as voters link hardships with their leaders. On the other hand, wealth can drive support to the party in office due to perceived competence. As economic concerns take centre stage, you can turn to US election betting to engage with elections and capitalise on people's insights.
Several economic factors come into play when people decide who to vote for. In the US, inflation, job markets, and other influences serve as the main aspects that voters prioritise.
Here's a breakdown of economic factors with a huge impact on people's voting choices:
Inflation remains a top concern for voters, affecting buying power and stability. Over the past year, inflation has dropped to a three-year low, with the consumer price index rising by 2.5%. However, it is projected to average 5% during Biden's presidency, compared to an average of 1.9% during Trump's office.
Voters have a longer memory of inflation, recalling price hikes over several years rather than just recent trends. This long-term view can affect voting behaviour, favouring candidates with effective measures to stabilise prices.
The US job market is cooling, with only 142,000 jobs added in August, below expert predictions. While the job market has cooled, Fed officials do not see signs of recession. Layoffs remain low, and weekly jobless claims are not spiking.
However, the market is getting weaker, with the 3-month average of new jobs falling to 116,000. Moreover, small businesses react by reducing hiring, showing a cautious approach amid market conditions. Despite that, there's been a slight 4.2% unemployment rate and wage growth has sped up.
Rising home prices made it harder for average Americans to buy a house. Rent prices increased 1.5 times faster than wages in major US cities over the past 4 years. Moreover, national rent surged by 30.4% compared to a 20.2% rise in income. With this, both Harris and Trump promised action to lower property costs.
Meanwhile, high property values favour millions of existing homeowners. This can lead to their support of the current party, overall indicating a huge reality gap between social classes.
A recent survey reveals a Fed 'monetary policy mistake' that can harm the economy over the next year. This concern comes as the Fed prepares to address recent interest rate cuts, possibly due to the upcoming election and Ukraine and Middle East conflicts.
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the Fed's decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.5% to drive economic growth. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concerns about recent inflation, suggesting that core inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%.
Economic class plays a huge role in voters' behaviour, influencing their views on policies. Age and spatial environment can also shape people's choices for various policies, with each group having different priorities.
Here's a breakdown of some voter groups to give you more insight into online betting politics:
Low-income: Low-income voters often feel left out and may not trust political groups due to policies' failure to address their needs. As such, they tend to prioritise social services, equality, and justice.
Middle-class: Middle-class voters generally see politics as a way toward stability and progress. Their priorities usually involve healthcare, education, tax benefits, and the like.
Upper-class: Upper-class voters often view politics as a platform for maintaining economic interests. They tend to prioritise issues that affect their wealth, including tax policies and investment networks.
Young voters: Young voters often feel let down by old politics, viewing them as unhelpful. They're more likely to prioritise social issues and seek change.
Rural vs urban: Rural voters often feel neglected by urban-centric policies and believe that their concerns are overlooked. Thus, they usually want to address agriculture and cultural values. Meanwhile, urban voters tend to focus on complex social issues, prioritising house costs and public transit.
The 2024 presidential election is set to be a close fight, with sharply opposed issues resonating with various groups. It could have lasting effects on the U.S. political landscape, as economic divides continue to shape voter preferences. The outcome will influence policy direction, determining how core issues like inflation and housing affordability are addressed.
As the election draws near, level up the suspense by wagering on political betting sites, adding more excitement. But remember, vote wisely as your vote will shape the country’s future.
