Aug 30, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Blake Snell (7) throws against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
There's nothing like a good, anonymous poll to fuel the fire of baseball's hot stove.
Jesse Rogers of ESPN conducted a poll of 18 MLB executives and baseball insiders to ask some of the most burning questions about the Hot Stove season, free agency, trades, etc.
We're tackling a few of them here at On Pattison to offer some perspective as it relates to the Phillies.
The one I found most intriguing was based on this question:
Where will the top three free agent aces with MLB experience sign?
It was framed that way because there is going to be a robust market for 23-year-old Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki as well, but he wasn't included in this question.
The three names ESPN asked about were righty Corbin Burnes and lefties Blake Snell and Max Fried.
Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell represent the top tier of starting pitchers entering free agency 👀
BK does some digging in on the upper echelon of aces this winter and what they can provide to a contending club. #MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/uQhliPZGxm
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 8, 2024
The Phillies only were linked to one of them in the anonymous responses - Snell. And they were the second choice with four votes behind the San Francisco Giants, Snell's most recent team, re-signing the two-time Cy Young winner.
The Blue Jays, Reds, Mets and Red Sox also got votes, but to have four folks independently pick the Phillies for Snell was enough to pique my interest.
First, one has to wonder how serious the respondents take this questionnaire. Are they giving their full-on, honest opinion? Are they trying to shape the market? Are they trying to identify teams with money and use them as stalking horses?
And to be honest, I don't love the notion of this anonymous group being a mix of current MLB executives and baseball insiders. Who are the insiders? Are they folks having off-the-record conversations with agents and wittingly or unwittingly doing their bidding?
There's a lot to consider there.
Another consideration is what it's going to take to sign him. Snell opted out of the final year of his contract with the Giants that would have paid him $30 million in 2025. That's not to say he thinks he's worth more than $30 million a year for multiple years, but rather that his next contract will have a total value of more than $30 million over multiple years, so the opt out was smart.
Teams probably won't commit to a long contract for Snell because of durability issues - he's only reach 180 innings in a season twice in a nine-year career - but could he get the same AAV as Aaron Nola (roughly $27 million a year) over a shorter time frame (say four years, with a team option beyond that)? Yes.
Also, what should be considered is that the Phillies didn't seem to have any interest in Snell a season ago, when he was coming off his second Cy Young Award. The reason that seemed to be out there was because Snell had a propensity to not throw a ton of innings and Phillies president Dave Dombrowski prefers that pitchers at the top of his rotation are pitchers who give you length.
Just looking at 2024, Zack Wheeler gave them 200 innings. Nola fell two-thirds of an inning short of that. Cristopher Sanchez had a career-high 180 innings. Heck, Ranger Suarez was trending in that direction as well before back injuries derailed the second half of what started out as a special season for the popular lefty.
Meanwhile, Snell, who turns 32-years-old in a couple weeks, in 211 career starts has thrown just 1096 2/3 innings, or, on average, 5.20 innings per start.
In 2024 he threw 104 innings in 20 starts - which is 5.20 innings per start. He's nothing if not consistent when it comes to that aspect.
So, Snell wouldn't really fit the mold of what Dombrowski is normally looking for in a starting pitcher.
That said, in the innings he does pitch, he's pretty dominant.
He holds the MLB record for most strikeouts per nine innings pitched in his career (minimum 1000 innings) at 11.2 per nine.
Highest SO/9 in a career (min 1,000 IP):
11.23 — Blake Snell
11.09 — Chris Sale
11.07 — Robbie Ray
10.97 — Jacob deGrom pic.twitter.com/U9YbqjQBHQ
He also doesn't give up a lot of hits. In his career he's given up 6.9 hits per nine innings. In the last two seasons it was 5.8 and 5.6 hits per nine.
So, if he doesn't give up hits and he strikes out so many batters, why doesn't he pitch more than five innings?
Well, he's effectively wild.
But that doesn't mean he doesn't have command.
Love Blake Snell getting some love here for his command. The BB% makes it seems like he's wild, but he is making a conscious choice not to end up in the heart of the plate. It's how he throws the fewest "Mistake" pitches each year (3% again in 2024!) https://t.co/h3JLOll1dV https://t.co/TcANH5zHTW pic.twitter.com/gGBK0GIXnG
In his career he has walked 4.1 batters per nine innings. In 2023, he led the majors in walks with 99 - and that's in a year he won a Cy Young.
In 2024 his walk rate was slightly better, but still high as he walked 44 batters in 104 innings.
However, he chooses to pitch out of the zone. He'd rather work around a few walks and avoid hits than put balls over the plate and pitch to contact and hope for the defense to help.
That might play in Citizens Bank Park, where contact can do damage.
Even though they haven't gone this route in the recent past, might the Phillies be thinking about a shift in approach to their starters knowing they have three guys in Wheeler, Nola and Sanchez who will give them length?
Might they be more comfortable with a fourth guy who is dominant for five innings and then needs to turn it over to the bullpen?
If you asked me this two months ago, I'd have said no shot. But seeing the things the Phillies have said publicly and seeing how they are being linked to so many different players and scenarios so far this offseason, it's starting to seem like they are going to go a different route than they did a season ago and try to be very active.
And if four executives and insiders combined independently think the Phillies might be kicking the tires on Snell, then that's certainly enough smoke to pay attention too going forward to see if the signals are signs of an actual fire, or if they are a false flag.
