May 5, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (45) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Jeff Curry
Every Tuesday, On Pattison's Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo will answer your questions from social media pertaining to the Phillies. Although, this week Anthony is on his honeymoon, so you're just stuck with me. Let's get to it.
@FlipstoStock on X: Tim can you sell me a little more on what the big deal is about Crochet? We’re talking about giving up 2-3 top prospects for a guy whose ERA would’ve been 5th on this team? Admittedly I haven’t seen him much - is he expected to be an ace type?
Tim Kelly: Garrett Crochet had a tremendous season in 2024, his first full year both as an MLB starting pitcher and back from Tommy John surgery. You referenced the 3.58 ERA over 146 innings, but his 2.83 ERA and 2.69 FIP suggest he was even better. To have struck out 209 batters over that amount of innings is pretty staggering for a starter. He has two years remaining before free agency, and shouldn't have the same concerns about limiting his innings that he had in 2024. There's a ton to like about Crochet as a trade candidate.
However, I do question whether the Phillies need to invest major resources into another starting pitcher. They have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez all signed long-term, with Ranger Suárez for at least another year. Andrew Painter is going to make his MLB debut in 2024. The Phillies seem to be set up pretty good as is from a starting pitching sense. Their biggest needs are in the outfield and back end of the bullpen.
Phillies Reportedly Among 'The Most Aggressive' Suitors For Garrett Crochethttps://t.co/NvHioEhs1e
— On Pattison (@OnPattison) November 8, 2024
Speaking of Painter, the Phillies reportedly weren't willing to discuss him in talks for Crochet — or any player — over the summer. I think that makes sense. You can point to prospects that have ended up being busts in the past, but good teams develop stars. The Phillies have a chance to do that with Painter.
Could a package that includes some mix of prospects like Aidan Miller, Justin Crawford, Eduardo Tait and Starlyn Caba get you Crochet? Maybe, but you've spent time trying to overhaul your farm system. You're not going to hit on all of those prospects, but my inclination* wouldn't be to gut the system now that it seems to be in a better place.
*I reserve the right to change my mind on this if the Miami Marlins shop a healthy Sandy Alcántara a year from now.
@SincerelyNotMe3 on X: Do you think the Phillies go scorched earth with FA signings? Getting Crochet would be huge but signing Soto would be monumental. With how the season ended, Phillies need to make a splash signing to get the fans back on board.
Tim Kelly: I do not think the Phillies will go "scorched earth" in free agency. I've kind of felt all along that Soto was really unlikely, and Phillies managing partner John Middleton seemed to agree with that when asked last Friday:
John Middleton: ‘I’m Afraid Juan Soto Wants To Be in New York’https://t.co/rR5UlgcOr8
That doesn't mean you don't check in on Soto, but I think he'll either re-sign with the New York Yankees or head across town to the Mets.
I actually released my top 25 free agents countdown over on Bleacher Report yesterday. I predicted the Phillies will come away with two of the top relievers. But while they probably aren't set position wise, that doesn't necessarily mean the solution will be signing Soto, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames or Pete Alonso.
@Thirtyballparks on Threads: If Ranger Suárez has another season like last year, do you think the Phillies try to move him at the deadline?
Tim Kelly: Honestly, I would find it pretty hard to believe Suárez will have another season where the extremes are as drastic as they were in 2024.
With that said, he does need to prove that he can make 30+ starts to maximize his earning potential in free agency. If he doesn't, I don't think that would mean the Phillies trade Suárez during the season, but it might mean they extend him a qualifying offer and let him depart in free agency if he doesn't accept it.
That is, assuming Suárez isn't moved this offseason.
From @AntSanPhilly: Should the Phillies Consider Trading Ranger Suárez?https://t.co/RxcRX2d7IT
@hazmatcorntail on Threads: If you could only add one element to the roster that would be the most efficient use of adding to the payroll, would it be a full-time closer or a traditional leadoff hitter?
Tim Kelly: Probably a traditional leadoff hitter, although there's so few of those. Like if the Cleveland Guardians were willing to trade Steven Kwan, that would be someone who would be a perfect fit to be your leadoff hitter/left fielder. But he has three years left of team control, so that's unlikely to happen.
Kyle Schwarber leading off is a divisive topic in Philadelphia, but they've won a lot of games with him doing so. It can't be that bad. If Bryson Stott or Trea Turner doesn't seize the leadoff spot and you end up with Schwarber, so be it.
Phillies Will Consider Whether Kyle Schwarber Leading Off Is Best Arrangement
Latest from @TimKellySports ⬇️https://t.co/roc2hPGkiB
Back to your question, if you continue to use multiple pitchers to close games out — which would probably entail signing two free-agent relievers — that's wouldn't be an awful strategy.
But after a bullpen meltdown in the postseason, an overcorrection wouldn't be a bad idea. Having Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley pitch in the ninth inning would be pretty great for the Phillies.
@Mountainbirdfan on Threads: What is the plan to avoid the post All-Star Game slump? Can we just NOT go?
Tim Kelly: There was so much focus this past year about not getting off to a slow start, which the Phillies accomplished. Then they were a .500 team after the All-Star Break and lost in the NLDS.
I don't think the issue was having eight All-Stars, though. Of the All-Stars who struggled the most in the second half, Suárez is probably the one who comes to mind and he didn't even go to the All-Star Game because he was already dealing with some back discomfort. Zack Wheeler didn't go either because he pitched on the Sunday prior to the All-Star Game.
It is true that players get so little time off during the regular season that it can sometimes be a blessing in disguise not to go to the All-Star Game. But I don't really think the reason the Phillies hit a wall in the second half was because of having so many All-Stars. Honestly, they had started to hit it before then.
